And then there were two...

Last week's Hutchinson News article nicely defined where the first district race is to this point with first, second and third tier candidates. Now, I don't believe a campaign can be judged solely on fundraising as there are a lot of factors that play into a successful campaign. (And you know I really mean that since my guy is pretty much mopping the floor in that area.) But I do think in an off election year (yes, this is an off election year, despite what you've heard in the news), fundraising is the only tangible measurement of a candidates potential success.

As the Hutch News article points out, the race is quickly becoming a two man battle between moderate backed Jim Barnett and conservative Tim Huelskamp. This shouldn't be much of a surprise to anyone since they are the only two in the race with a voting record to back up their rhetoric (or lack thereof in Barnett's case), and the local connections needed to compete. What has been surprising is the failure of the second and third tier candidates.

Tracey Mann looked somewhat promising as a new moderate contender. This is looking less and less likely with Jim Barnett in the picture, backed by Morris, Vratil and Schmidt. I think originally Tim Barker was the mods guy, but with him out and Barnett in, there just isn't much room for Mann campaign. It also appears this past quarter that his fundraising is beginning to suffer after tapping out his family connections. Further, I'm sure endorsing Jim Slattery over Pat Roberts will certainly be noted by the Barnett campaign if the situation should warrant it.

Rob Wasinger continues to sputter in first district support. After two consecutive quarterly reports without a single itemized contribution from the first district, (a stretch that has to be unprecedented, although I know of no way to verify this), his October finance report showed he actually took in less in first district and Kansas contributions than last quarter. Only 5.9% of his total contributions have come from the district he wants to represent.

As What's Right With Kansas pointed out, Dennis Moore seems to be having local support problems, relying heavily on D.C. PAC contributions and receiving less and less individual contributions from everyday Kansans. Wasinger doesn't seem able to shake this problem either. I wholeheartedly agree with RWKS that voters seem to be following the DC insider money and voting with their pocketbook. And of course, a $2,500 contribution from John McCain's PAC certainly doesn't help the conservative cred, so it looks as though this will keep the first district in a two man race.

Huelskamp continues to build support. Most notable to is the endorsement by Club for Growth, one of the nation's premiere fiscal conservative organizations. Interestingly, Club for Growth has been a major force in New York's 23rd congressional district's special election, supporting the Conservative Party's nominee over the liberal GOP nominee. More on the similarities between NY-23 and KS-01 later.

Now, there's certainly still time for another candidate to get into the race, although by this time any Republican who announces is just looking for a meal ticket. With the mod squad behind Barnett, I'm sure the other mods in the race will be spoken with and quietly asked to exit stage left. There will be more than two names on the ballot come August, but for all intensive purposes, this has become a two man race.

Club for Growth backs Huelskamp

The conscience of the fiscally conservative has entered the first district race in Kansas behind Sen. Tim Huelskamp.

The Club for Growth is well known to be willing to fight for the real fiscal conservative in Republican primaries including former U.S. Rep Pat Toomey who ran against now Democrat Arlen Specter and Stephen Laffey against RINO Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island.

The Club's involvement in the first district is the most significant endorsement to date for several reasons. First, the Club has shown an aptitude in the past at raising large amounts of money for their chosen candidate. Even though Sen. Huelskamp has been more than competitive in fund raising, the Club's support will put the Huelskamp campaign over the top against self funded Jim Barnett.

Further, the first district is almost the perfect place for the fiscally conservative group to get involved. As each day passes, it looks as though the primary will be the only election, with no Democratic candidate to show any interest. The Club for Growth has shown a keen eye in picking primary winners, or in the case of the Big First, probably the winner.

The Club's endorsement hit the national news sites quickly, (much quicker than I was able to post here), so here is a round up.

Townhall.com

"Huelskamp has previously received a ton of endorsements from individuals and groups like Kansans for Life, Concerned Women PAC, and the Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund. The Club for Growth endorsement is, without a doubt, the largest and most significant endorsement a conservative Congressional candidate can receive."

My guess is that this Club for Growth endorsement will finally push national conservatives to fully coalesce around Huelskamp, just as Kansas conservatives already have. You see, while Huelskamp has received overwhelming backing from a diverse collection of conservative groups, ranging from Kansans for Life and the Club for Growth, a few DC conservative 'insiders' have been working against him.

CQ Politics

The political action committee for the conservative Club for Growth on Monday endorsed two 2010 House candidates who are each competing against multiple Republicans in open seat races: State Sen. Tim Huelskamp in Kansas' 1st District; and state Rep. Tom Graves in Georgia's 9th District.

RollCall

The political action committee for the anti-tax group Club for Growth on Monday endorsed two fiscally conservative state legislators in a pair of open-seat House races.

State Sen. Tim Huelskamp is one of several prominent Republicans hoping to replace Rep. Jerry Moran (R) in Kansas’ conservative 1st district. Moran is running for Senate this cycle.

"Tim Huelskamp stands out as a champion of limited government and economic freedom,” Club for Growth President Chris Chocola said in a release. “Unlike some of the other Republicans in this race, Tim has compiled an impressive record and demonstrated the leadership skills necessary to fight for free-market policies in Congress."

American Spectator

Kudos to the Club for Growth for endorsing conservative leader Tim Huelskamp for Congress in KS-1. The Club for Growth is the most effective organization on the right when it comes to winning GOP primaries. Hence the Club for Growth endorsement is arguably the most important one a conservative candidate can receive. If there was any doubt before, Tim Huelskamp is now the clear front runner in this important race.

The lines have been clearly drawn and Jim Barnett can no longer hide behind a fiscal converative lie. And now with the Club for Growth in the race, the cash will most certainly be there to expose him for the tax and spender he really is.

More on Barnett's previous fiscal ideas and votes later...