And then there were two...

Last week's Hutchinson News article nicely defined where the first district race is to this point with first, second and third tier candidates. Now, I don't believe a campaign can be judged solely on fundraising as there are a lot of factors that play into a successful campaign. (And you know I really mean that since my guy is pretty much mopping the floor in that area.) But I do think in an off election year (yes, this is an off election year, despite what you've heard in the news), fundraising is the only tangible measurement of a candidates potential success.

As the Hutch News article points out, the race is quickly becoming a two man battle between moderate backed Jim Barnett and conservative Tim Huelskamp. This shouldn't be much of a surprise to anyone since they are the only two in the race with a voting record to back up their rhetoric (or lack thereof in Barnett's case), and the local connections needed to compete. What has been surprising is the failure of the second and third tier candidates.

Tracey Mann looked somewhat promising as a new moderate contender. This is looking less and less likely with Jim Barnett in the picture, backed by Morris, Vratil and Schmidt. I think originally Tim Barker was the mods guy, but with him out and Barnett in, there just isn't much room for Mann campaign. It also appears this past quarter that his fundraising is beginning to suffer after tapping out his family connections. Further, I'm sure endorsing Jim Slattery over Pat Roberts will certainly be noted by the Barnett campaign if the situation should warrant it.

Rob Wasinger continues to sputter in first district support. After two consecutive quarterly reports without a single itemized contribution from the first district, (a stretch that has to be unprecedented, although I know of no way to verify this), his October finance report showed he actually took in less in first district and Kansas contributions than last quarter. Only 5.9% of his total contributions have come from the district he wants to represent.

As What's Right With Kansas pointed out, Dennis Moore seems to be having local support problems, relying heavily on D.C. PAC contributions and receiving less and less individual contributions from everyday Kansans. Wasinger doesn't seem able to shake this problem either. I wholeheartedly agree with RWKS that voters seem to be following the DC insider money and voting with their pocketbook. And of course, a $2,500 contribution from John McCain's PAC certainly doesn't help the conservative cred, so it looks as though this will keep the first district in a two man race.

Huelskamp continues to build support. Most notable to is the endorsement by Club for Growth, one of the nation's premiere fiscal conservative organizations. Interestingly, Club for Growth has been a major force in New York's 23rd congressional district's special election, supporting the Conservative Party's nominee over the liberal GOP nominee. More on the similarities between NY-23 and KS-01 later.

Now, there's certainly still time for another candidate to get into the race, although by this time any Republican who announces is just looking for a meal ticket. With the mod squad behind Barnett, I'm sure the other mods in the race will be spoken with and quietly asked to exit stage left. There will be more than two names on the ballot come August, but for all intensive purposes, this has become a two man race.

Get ready, the Senate wants a tax increase

The TEA party protesters will have their best chance yet to stop unwarranted taxing and spending. The Kansas Legislature is under a deadline this week to balance the budget and the state Senate signaled yesterday that it intends to balance it through tax increases. It's so bad even the "mainstream media" is putting "revenue enhancements" in quotation marks.

"Moderate" Republicans along with Democrats passed a budget balancing bill that institutes an across the board cut of 2.75% but doesn't balance the budget. Instead they plan to raise taxes on Kansas businesses already hurting and probably cause even more job losses in the private sector. Of course, they have no problem with this because public jobs are still growing, and that's where we should be giving our undivided attention, right?

Senate leadership also wants to allow tax cheats to pay their late bills in order to close the gap. This is a tax increase on everyone. Paying late without penalties is a tax cut in essence because the full amount owed to the state isn't being paid. Those who suffer are responsible citizens who paid on time. Why should I pay my taxes if I can pay a year or two later and use the money I would have given to the state for something else? Why have tax deadlines if we have no intention of enforcing them?

Senate leadership wants to talk about "shared sacrifice." What leadership doesn't understand, and citizens are going to have to explain, is that taxpayers and businesses have been "sharing" the sacrifice for a very long time already. While the number of public jobs increased by 1.9% the past year, the number of private sector jobs decreased by 1.9%. The private sector has been "sharing" quite a bit more than the public sector already. After increasing spending by 48% over four years, it's time the public welfare sector do its part and stop pushing the bill off onto Kansas taxpayers.

Here's how Senator's voted on the Masterson amendment that would have balanced the budget without a tax increase. Click on the Senator's name for information on how to contact them.

So long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, good night!

The queen is gone! What a great day for Kansas and a dark future for America.

Now the question becomes just how left has Mark Parkinson gone since he switched parties in '06. I don't think his stance on any issue of importance has changed at all. I think he's the same liberal he was before and will continue to be til 2010 rolls around. He'll just be a little more cushy with Steve Morris and John Vratil. But then again, the only difference Morris had with Sebelius was the coal plants, so what's changed? Nothing!

The positions haven't changed, just the strength of the person behind them. Parkinson isn't seen as strong as Sebelius, so basically Republicans are happy about him being in charge because they think they can peel off enough Democrats to override any veto he might hand down. Certainly possible when it comes to pro-life legislation, but I doubt any coal plants will be built anytime soon.

How much damage did Brownback cause to himself? That may not be known until November next year, but I still believe his chances of winning are pretty good. Kaw and Border has posted a defense of Brownback. It's worth a read.

All in all things are looking quite bleak for Democrats in Kansas. Their savior has bolted for their other savior and now there's no one to save them from the mean, nasty Republicans. Either Tiahrt or Moran are a shoo in for Senate, their best candidate for governor they've decided to attack themselves (Steineger) and they only have appointed officials as Treasurer and AG who now have to fund raise on their own with out the help of Queen Kathleen.

Such a refreshing morning!

Will Republican mods, tea parties stop a tax increase?

As I noted before, the real work of preventing a state tax increase is looming. Revenue estimates are in and they're the worst ever since the revenue estimating group was formed in 1975.

Gov. Sebelius and the Legislature will have to close a minimum $328 million gap. That's almost guaranteed to increase in the months to come as there's no sign that revenues are going to reverse their downward trend.

As any good Democrat, Gov. Sebelius and her cronies in the Legislature have no intention of letting this crisis simply go by. House Minority Leader Paul Davis has already made his love of a tax increase clear. And following the release of the new revenue numbers, Gov. Sebelius indicated she wanted to enact her previous recommendations to avoid cuts to, "essential services for vulnerable citizens or further cuts in education."

In other words, there's nothing left to cut but education, therefore we need to increase taxes so we can put more of Kansans money down a black hole.

The main variable to the bitter end will be Republican moderates. To his credit, Senate President Steve Morris seems to be holding strong.

“We will make the necessary adjustments within our existing revenues to make sure we end up with a balanced budget."

Pressure will be applied to Morris and other moderate Republicans, just like it was when Sebelius decided to not pay state employees to take advantage of the "crisis." Morris nearly caved then, will he be able to hold out now?

The unknown variable here is the tea parties. Will the thousands who turned out April 15 stay involved and apply their own pressure to legislators and Sebelius to not increase taxes to fix their own problems?

You won't see any betting odds from me just yet...